A warning that this is one of those sometimes I’m going to write about politics kind of posts.
Did you know that 92.7654% of statistics are made up on the spot, I just read it in that little thumbnail on the left – and everything I read must be true, otherwise why would anyone bother to write it. That is certainly what it seems like when you listen to the news and politicians sometimes.
Fox news has an article today breaking down how the government has been twisting statistics about the guns going to Mexico from the US. It has been commonly quoted lately that 90% of the guns being used in Mexican crimes lately have come from the US. This is a huge number and is most likely wrong. Fox claims that the number being used is grossly overestimated and is actually 17%. But, how could the number be so far off. Truth is, the actual numbers are unclear and both sides are pulling only the numbers that best reflect their own agenda. Lets take a look at the actual numbers and see the flaws in both arguments.
(The numbers used for the analysis are from the Fox news article, and not independently verified but they are most likely accurate)
Between 2007-2008 around 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes of the 29,000 –
6,000 were traceable (meaning they could be tracked back to their origin, most likely with a serial number). Of the 6,000 – 90% were found to be from the US. This is where the US got its 90% statistic. Fox argues that 5,114 guns traced back to the US of the 6,000 is actually only 17% of the total guns found so only 17% of the guns are from the US. However, many more of those 24,000 guns left may very well come from the US as well, they are just not traceable. In theory, 90% of the remaining guns could also be from the US or none of them could be from the US which would make Fox’s 17% accurate. Truth is though that it is almost a certain reality that both are wrong and are badly twisting the numbers they have available.
What bothers me most, however, is that this purposeful misuse of the numbers is so obvious but it is not being called out by the media at all. News outlets all over the world are busy quoting the numbers from both sides, without any relevant facts. Every time it is repeated more people are duped by the agendas of one side or the other.